A survey into dairy farmers' intentions for the future shows a
dip in confidence compared with last year - but younger farmers are
more likely to resist the trend and look to expand production.
The 2011 DairyCo Farmer Intentions Survey shows
that there has been a slight dip in GB dairy farmer confidence,
with 13% planning to leave the industry in the next two years,
compared to 9% in the 2010 survey.
Milk prices and input costs were the greatest
concerns to GB dairy farmers, but the survey showed some less
expected statistics about milk contracts. "In this year's
survey we questioned dairy farmers about their opinion of their
milk contracts, to get an understanding of how this may influence
their future intentions," says Matt. "Only a small percentage of
dairy farmers cited milk buyer contracts as a major threat or
challenge. A majority of farmers, 54%, were happy with their
contract, although 56% highlighted milk price as a major concern.
This may indicate that dairy farmers do not connect milk
price and contracts as interrelated issues."
"There are also some interesting characteristics
when looking at industry expanders. Those farmers seeking to
increase production differ in their characteristics compared to the
total industry sample."
For instance, expanding farmers are more likely
to:
• Be in younger age groups: 69% of
those under the age of 30 are intending to increase production,
compared to 23% of over 60s.
• Have a successor: 73% of those
farmers intending to increase have a successor.
• Have a solely dairy enterprise: 71%
of those farmers intending to expand have a solely dairy enterprise
compared to 29% of mixed farmers.
The overall picture is less positive, with just
over 50% of dairy farmers expected to maintain their production at
current levels over the next two years; the survey estimates that
GB milk production could fall by up to 4% within the next two
years. However, results from previous surveys show that the
actual effects on production has often been less than
predicted.
Only 6% of GB farmers surveyed in 2011 plan to
invest more than £250,000 over the next five years. This
represents a three percentage point drop on last year.
"With 13% of farmers intending to leave the
industry, there is a concern that GB will stand to lose milk
production capacity if there is not sufficient investment," says
senior analyst Matt Johnson.
The full survey can be downloaded from the DairyCo
website here.The 2011 DairyCo Farmer Intentions Survey shows that
there has been a slight dip in GB dairy farmer confidence, with 13%
planning to leave the industry in the next two years, compared to
9% in the 2010 survey.
The 2011 DairyCo Farmer Intentions Survey shows that there has been
a slight dip in GB dairy farmer confidence, with 13% planning to
leave the industry in the next two years, compared to 9% in the
2010 survey.
Milk prices and input costs were the greatest concerns to GB dairy
farmers, but the survey showed some less expected statistics about
milk contracts. "In this year's survey we questioned dairy
farmers about their opinion of their milk contracts, to get an
understanding of how this may influence their future intentions,"
says Matt. "Only a small percentage of dairy farmers cited milk
buyer contracts as a major threat or challenge. A majority of
farmers, 54%, were happy with their contract, although 56%
highlighted milk price as a major concern. This may indicate
that dairy farmers do not connect milk price and contracts as
interrelated issues."
"There are also some interesting characteristics when looking at
industry expanders. Those farmers seeking to increase production
differ in their characteristics compared to the total industry
sample."
For instance, expanding farmers are more likely to:
• Be in younger age groups: 69% of those under the age
of 30 are intending to increase production, compared to 23% of over
60s.
• Have a successor: 73% of those farmers intending to
increase have a successor.
• Have a solely dairy enterprise: 71% of those farmers
intending to expand have a solely dairy enterprise compared to 29%
of mixed farmers.
The overall picture is less positive, with just over 50% of dairy
farmers expected to maintain their production at current levels
over the next two years; the survey estimates that GB milk
production could fall by up to 4% within the next two years.
However, results from previous surveys show that the actual
effects on production has often been less than predicted.
Only 6% of GB farmers surveyed in 2011 plan to invest more than
£250,000 over the next five years. This represents a three
percentage point drop on last year.
"With 13% of farmers intending to leave the industry, there is a
concern that GB will stand to lose milk production capacity if
there is not sufficient investment," says senior analyst Matt
Johnson.
The full survey can be downloaded from the DairyCo website
here.
The 2011 Farmer Intentions Survey, published this week, is
conducted annually by DairyCo, the levy-funded organisation working
on behalf of Britain's dairy farmers. It interviewed more than
1,200 dairy farmers about their intentions for the future.
The survey showed that dairy farmer confidence has decrease
slightly, with 13% planning to leave the industry in the next two
years, compared with 9% in the 2010 survey. However, 31% of
respondents said they plan to increase milk production in the next
two years.
Amanda Ball from DairyCo said: "While we are seeing a decline in
farm numbers, this is a long-term trend that sits alongside a
tendency towards fewer, more efficient farms. What is encouraging
is how positive younger dairy farmers are feeling. It bodes well
for the future."
Those who are looking to expand production are more likely
to:
- Be in younger age groups: 69% of those under the age of 30 are
intending to increase production, compared with 23% of over
60s.
- Have a successor: 73% of those farmers intending to increase
have a successor.
- Have a solely dairy enterprise: 71% of those farmers intending
to expand have a solely dairy enterprise compared with 29% of mixed
farmers.
The full survey can be downloaded from the DairyCo website here.
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